A tropical disturbance, known as Invest 97W by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, is centered west of the Marianas near 14N142E. Model guidance favors gradual development of this system the next few days, though there is still uncertainty on its eventual motion and further pattern evolution. The general concern is for an extensive rainfall event through the weekend. As such, a flood watch is in effect for the Marianas through Sunday night. A secondary concern, and with more uncertainty, is the potential for a significant wind event with a tropical depression or tropical storm affecting the Marianas. Currently, the chance for tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater is very small. It is more likely the developing circulation will bring increasing winds and strong to near-gale force gusts to portions of the Marianas by the weekend. Once 97W has moved away from the lower Marianas, a prolonged wet pattern could still remain into next week under the influence of a southwesterly monsoon flow. Residents across the Marianas should continue monitoring local weather forecasts from the National Weather Service in Guam, and for additional information from local emergency management. Visit weather.gov/gum/PublicForecasts for the latest weather information from the NWS.
