ESFAFC Rainfall: * Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound: 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts in higher terrain. * Mat-Su Valley: 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts. The highest rainfall totals are likely to be across the northern Susitna Valley. * Western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage: 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with the heaviest rainfall occuring adjacent to Cook Inlet. Downsloping at times may result in localized lower amounts immediately west of the mountains. Hydrologic Concerns * Expect sharp rises on many small streams and rivers. Many smaller streams will crest Thursday night into Friday while larger rivers or downstream points may crest Friday and Saturday. Higher than normal water levels may continue through Labor Day Weekend into next week. * Many lower locations along rivers such as gravel bars and other spots popular for camping and recreating are likely to become inundated with water. * Heavy rain may result in localized ponding in low-lying areas and locations with poor drainage. Confidence and Next Steps * Confidence is high that a multi-day heavy rainfall event will occur across Southcentral Alaska, with the northern Susitna Valley and Prince William Sound receiving the heaviest rainfall. Confidence is medium regarding rainfall totals and placement of heaviest rainfall. If forecast rainfall totals hold or increase, flood watches may be needed for portions of the Kenai Peninsula, Mat-Su Valley, or elsewhere. * Residents along area streams as well as river users and recreationists should anticipate higher than normal water levels and are advised to monitor weather and river forecasts. * Reports on river conditions may be sent to the river forecast center by calling 1-800-847-1739.
