HLSAKQ This product covers CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA. NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE **ERIN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Accomack, Eastern Currituck, Northampton, Virginia Beach, and Western Currituck * STORM INFORMATION: - About 740 miles south of Ocean City MD or about 660 miles south-southeast of Norfolk VA - 27.7N 73.0W - Storm Intensity 100 mph - Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 12 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Hurricane Erin, currently just northeast of the Bahamas, will gradually turn northward on Wednesday, and then northeastward on Thursday, with the center of the storm remaining well offshore of the Middle Atlantic. However, Erin is expected to grow in size which may allow for tropical storm conditions to impact areas close to the coast from the Virginia Eastern Shore, Virginia Beach, Currituck County, as well as the Maryland, Virginia and northeast North Carolina Coastal Waters. Winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 45 mph are possible close to the coast south of Chincoteague. Regardless of the exact track, Erin is expected to bring high surf, significant dune and beach erosion and moderate to locally major tidal flooding to the area. Seas will increase to 12 to 18 feet over the coastal waters by Thursday which will allow for significant beach and dune erosion for the coast especially around the times of high tide on Thursday morning and Thursday evening. In addition, moderate to locally major coastal flooding is expected during the Thursday afternoon and evening high tide with inundation of 1 to 3 feet above normally high ground. A coastal flood watch is in effect for the Virginia zones bordering the bay, and tidal rivers, and the ocean from Chincoteague south to Currituck Beach Light NC. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * SURGE: Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across limited impacts across all of the shoreline from Maryland through Virginia to NE North Carolina, including the lower and middle Chesapeake Bay. Potential impacts in this area include: - Widespread storm surge flooding of vulnerable areas will result in an elevated threat of property damage to homes and businesses near the waterfront and shoreline. - Sections of low-lying vulnerable roads, parking lots and property will likely become flooded. Driving conditions could become dangerous in places where flooding covers the road. - Moderate to severe beach erosion is likely, including heavy surf possibly breaching dunes, especially in vulnerable locations. Strong and dangerous rip currents are likely. - Minor to moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers is likely. A few small craft broken away from moorings. Elsewhere across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA. NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, little to no impact is anticipated. * OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS: Along the Atlantic coast from Fenwick Island Delaware to Duck North Carolina, expect waves to build to 12 to 18 ft by Thursday morning. These large waves combined with increased water levels will likely allow for significant beach and dune erosion. There is a high risk of rip currents along the shoreline through Friday. * WIND: Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the area close to the shoreline from Chincoteague VA to Duck NC. Potential impacts in this area include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, especially if soils are saturated. Some roadway signs will sustain damage. - A few roads may be impassable from debris. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. Elsewhere across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA. NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, little to no impact is anticipated. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: A madatory evacuation for the offroad area of Corolla effective at 9 AM EDT Wednesday August 20th. * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of others. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see www.readyvirginia.gov, readync.org or mema.maryland.gov - For the latest weather and storm information go to weather.gov/wakefield NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Wakefield VA around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.
