Overview: A low-level circulation (Invest 98W) is now centered near 18.4N 148.1E after a slow west motion the past 24 hours and is now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. This means the formation of a tropical cyclone is likely within the next 24 hours. This system is expected to maintain a general westward track over the next 48 hours, first passing over the far northern islands before continuing into the Philippine Sea. This disturbance remains in a very favorable environment for further development due to warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Winds: Increasingly gusty northerly winds will become southerly Friday with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 45 mph possible Friday. Further increases in the wind fields could be possible if 98W intensifies faster than currently anticipated. Rainfall: Periods of heavy rainfall with 3 to 6 inches of accumulation is possible through Saturday. This could lead to an increased risk of mudslides in steeper terrain. Seas: Seas of 3 to 5 feet will increase into the 6 to 9 foot range fairly quickly today as stronger winds move into the area. Conditions will approach hazardous levels for small crafts operating in the region. Suggestions: Secure lose items and stay informed and alert of the latest information from the National Weather Service office in Guam and the CNMI HSEM.
